JEFF'S #1 NCAA FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH

Indiana finds itself in an extremely difficult scheduling spot as the Hoosiers enter off a deflating 38-24 loss to Cincinnati (left 14-0 in the second quarter) and have Penn State on deck. In contrast, Western Kentucky enters off a bye and will be playing at home versus a Power 5 opponent for the first time since 2016 when they almost took down Vanderbilt as an 8-point underdog. Western Kentucky owns one of the most improved offenses in the nation after averaging just 19.0 points per game in 2020. Head coach Tyson Helton took significant action during the offseason by signing the key contributors to Houston Baptist's potent attack. Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, four-year starting quarterback Bailey Zappe and three wide receivers arrived from a Houston Baptist offense that scored 30-plus points against all three of its FBS opponents last season. The Hilltoppers are averaging 47.0 points and 532 total yards per game at 8.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 7.9 yards per play to a mediocre attack. The Hilltoppers' attack ranks first in the country in passing offense, 14th in passing yards per completion (16.02), first in third-down conversion rate (.688), and third in scoring offense. I have been impressed with Western Kentucky's offensive line, which returned just two starters but added key transfers in Boe Wilson (Nebraska) and Cameron Stage (Bowling Green). The Hilltoppers have only allowed three sacks this season (40th), which has allowed Zappe to rank second in passing efficiency (209.54), sixth in completion percentage (.747) and fourth in passing touchdowns (10). The Hilltoppers also field an elite defense that has ranked in the top-40 in each of the past two years. Defensive coordinator Maurice Crum welcomes back three starters along the line, including 1st Team CUSA DeAngelo Malone, who turned down the NFL to play his senior year in Bowling Green. The Hilltoppers were successful on 82% of their tackle attempts last season (11th in FBS) and while a drop in efficiency is likely I anticipate another solid defensive unit in 2021. Western Kentucky owns a top-25 special teams unit that returns intact after finishing 30th in the country last season. Finally, my math model only favors Indiana by 6.53 points in this game and the scheduling circumstances strongly favor the undervalued home underdog. Grab the points with Western Kentucky and invest with confidence.