JEFF'S #1 NCAA FOOTBALL INNER CIRCLE PAYDAY

My math model only favors Kentucky by 1.88 points in this game and the Wildcats find themselves in a very difficult scheduling situation. After sleep-walking through last week's 28-23 win over FCS Chattanooga as 33-point favorites, the Wildcats travel to South Carolina to play the Gamecocks before hosting Florida on October 2. The look-ahead potential is real and I would not be surprised if the Wildcats overlook a South Carolina squad that lost its final six games in 2020 by an average of 25 points. I like what first-year head coach Shane Beamer is doing in Columbia as the Gamecocks have won two of their first three games and are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The betting market has been slow to adjust to the modest improvement being made under Beamer as evidenced by the 3.12-point disparity between the current line and my projected point spread. South Carolina quarterback Luke Doty is expected to start against Kentucky after missing the first two games with a foot injury. Doty is a former top-100 recruit who got first-string experience last season and is a substantial upgrade over backup Zeb Noland, a one-time graduate assistant who joined the team when Doty got hurt this summer. Noland started the first three games of the season but departed last week's contest against Georgia with a hand injury. Doty will be operating behind a veteran offensive line with four returning starters and nine with starting experience (84 career starts). South Carolina's defense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average this season (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yards per play against a mediocre defense). South Carolina possesses a very good defensive line that returned three starters, including 1st Team SEC defensive end Kingsley Enagbare. Beamer improved the Gamecocks pass rush by signing Georgia State transfer Jordan Strachan, who led the FBS in sacks last year (10.5). Defensive coordinator Clayton White has done a tremendous job with South Carolina's inexperienced secondary as the Gamecocks have the third-most interceptions in college football this season. Finally, South Carolina has played a more difficult schedule and is a live home underdog versus a bloated road favorite that is more interested in next week's game against Florida. Grab the points with South Carolina and invest with confidence.