JEFF'S 100% CONFERENCE USA GAME OF WEEK

My math model only favors Louisiana Tech by 7.2 points in this game and the Bulldogs fall into very negative 13-43 ATS and 13-40 systems of mine. Let's take a look at the 13-43 angle, which invests against certain college football home teams that are allowing 35 or more points per game on the season following back-to-back games in which at least 70 combined points were scored. Louisiana Tech is one of the most overrated 1-2 teams in the nation as the Bulldogs have been outgained in all three of their games by an average of 90.0 yards. Overall, the Bulldogs are being outgained by a net -102 yards per game and face a North Texas squad that takes the field with triple revenge. The latter fact is significant in that the Mean Green are a perfect 3-0 ATS the previous three times they were playing with triple revenge. Let's also note that North Texas head coach Seth Littrell is 4-0-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog versus an opponent entering off an against-the-spread win. The situation is extremely favorable to North Texas as the Bulldogs are coming off a devastating last-second loss to SMU in which the Mustangs converted a 33-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass on the final play of the game to prevail 39-37. That heart-breaking defeat came on the heels of Louisiana Tech blowing a 20-point fourth quarter lead against Mississippi State in its season opener. Mississippi State scored 21 points in the game's final twelve minutes to beat the Bulldogs 35-34. Ouch! To be clear, Louisiana Tech was outplayed by the Bulldogs. Mississippi State turned the ball over four times, committed 12 penalties for 95 yards and looked confused and listless in the first game of head coach Mike Leach's second season in Starkville. Louisiana Tech's defense is allowing 38.7 points and 537 total yards per game at 6.7 yards per play this season. Even more concerning is the fact that the Bulldogs are giving up 40.5 points and 588 total yards at 6.8 yards per play at home this season. North Texas is a veteran team with 20 returning starters and is better than its 1-2 record suggests. My preseason ratings had North Texas with Conference USA's best wide-receiving corps, its second-best ground attack and the conference's third-best special teams unit. Those ratings remain the same through three games and I would not be surprised if the Mean Green walked away with the outright win tonight. Grab the points with North Texas and invest with confidence.