JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL FALSE FAVORITE OF THE WEEK

Air Force is one of the least experienced teams in the FBS, which is not unusual for service academies. The Falcons are ranked 112th in the nation in returning production (63%) and enter off an emotional win over Navy on 9-11. The biggest issue facing Air Force is its offensive line, which suffered attrition following the 2020 campaign. Six linemen with at least 101 snaps are gone and it will be nearly impossible for the Falcons to match last year's output (5th in offensive success rate). In contrast, Florida Atlantic is one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking fourth in returning production (93%) with 20 starters coming back from last year's 5-4 squad. While 5-4 does not seem overly impressive, keep in mind that first-year head coach Willie Taggart inherited just seven returning starters and could not practice in the spring (COVID-19). The Owls had their first spring practices under Taggart and are familiar with his schemes on both sides of the ball. 30 of 34 players that started last season are back and Taggert brought in some key transfers to give the Owls much-needed depth. College football teams that have nine or more returning offensive starters, including the quarterback (Florida Atlantic), and were .333 or worse ATS the previous season have improved by an incredible 27.3% against the spread and averaged 8.0 more points per game. Florida Atlantic's young defense performed exceptionally well last season, ranking 56th in defensive S&P+ and allowing just 9.4 points per game in wins. The Owls' stop unit finished 24th in yards per play allowed, 35th in success rate and 24th in marginal explosiveness last season. Blue-chip transfers in Florida State tackle Malcolm Lamar and Nebraska linebacker Keyshawn Greene join twelve players who played at least 200 snaps in 2020. Florida Atlantic's secondary, which allowed just 188 passing yards per game (54.9%) last year, returns fully intact. New defensive coordinator Mike Stoops spent the past two years in Alabama serving as Nick Saban's defensive analyst and I expect the veteran coach to achieve similar (if not better) results than last year's stop unit. The Owls' defense has been 0.5 yards per play better than average in three games this season (5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit) and has an advantage over an Air Force attack that has been 0.1 yards per play worse than average in 2021 (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yards per play to a mediocre offense). Florida Atlantic should have one of the most potent offenses in Conference USA behind Miami transfer quarterback N'Kosi Perry. Both starting running backs return, together with South Florida transfer Johnny Ford, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry over the last three seasons. All five starting offensive linemen are back (102 career starts) and Taggert brought in transfers from Florida State and Auburn to provide depth along the line. From a technical standpoint, Florida Atlantic applies to a very strong 63-26 ATS college football system of mine that invests on certain non-conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points following a non-conference affair. The Owls also fall into a profitable 46-17 ATS situation of mine that invests on certain non-conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season if they played in a bowl game the prior year and lost their final two games of the season. Taggart is 35-22-2 ATS away from home, including 10-5 ATS as an underdog of fewer than five points. Since 1980, college football home teams off their first loss of the season are just 134-148-4 ATS in Game Four, including 30-56-2 ATS if they allowed 35 or more points in the defeat. My math model actually favors Florida Atlantic by over two points in this game and the Owls are familiar with defending the option offense after defeating Georgia Southern 38-6 earlier this month (outgained the Eagles 528-254). With Florida Atlantic standing at 6-2 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, grab the points with the Owls and invest with confidence.