JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY

UTEP Miners (2-1) vs New Mexico Lobos (2-1)

Saturday, September 25, 2021 at 9:00 pm

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My math model has New Mexico winning outright and the Lobos apply to very strong 50-17 ATS and 34-9 ATS systems of mine. Since 1980, college football home teams off their first loss of the season are just 134-148-4 ATS in Game Four, including 30-56-2 ATS if they allowed 35 or more points in the defeat. New Mexico enters off a 34-0 loss to Texas A&M but the Lobos' coaching staff overlooked that game and have been preparing for this more winnable game for over ten days. College football road teams coming off a 34-0 or worse shutout loss are a profitable 64-38-1 ATS since 1980 versus teams off a loss. Let's also note that UTEP is a money-burning 5-39 straight-up in its last 44 games, including 1-16 straight-up and 4-13 ATS at home in those contests. The fundamental matchup is favorable for New Mexico as the Lobos possess a very good run defense that is allowing just 85 rushing yards per game this season (23rd in the nation). New Mexico has the nation's 47th ranked total defense and is primed to stop a one-dimensional UTEP attack that is averaging 44 rushes per game (51 at home). Finally, New Mexico has a substantial advantage under center with Kentucky transfer Terry Wilson, who owns a 142.2 QB Rating. Grab the point(s) with the Lobos and invest with confidence.

Jeff’s Pick New Mexico Lobos: -1 -110

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