JEFF'S #1 NCAA FOOTBALL MAC GAME OF WEEK

Ohio has won five consecutive games, including three outright upsets as underdogs, and controls its destiny in the MAC East with just two games remaining. However, that success has resulted in point spread inflation as my math model only favors Ohio by 2.6 points in this game and the Bobcats have one of the worst defenses in the country. Ohio is giving up 32.0 points and 466 total yards per game at 6.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre defense. The Bobcats’ stop unit performs even worse on the road where it’s allowing 483 total yards per game at 6.8 yards per play. Overall, Ohio is ranked 125th in total defense, 112th in scoring defense, 102nd in red zone defense and 121st in passing efficiency defense. The Bobcats are also 122nd in tackling, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Ball State needs to win one of its remaining two games to become bowl eligible and the Cardinals’ defense matches up well against Ohio’s aerial attack. Ball State is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt to teams that would combine to average 7.2 yards per pass attempt against a mediocre defense and has been 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively overall this season (5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defense). Ball State is ranked 49th in the country in passing yards allowed, 41st in passing efficiency defense and 48th in Finishing Drives defense. Ball State’s Defensive Metrics – Pro Football Focus (PFF) • 81.2 PFF Defense grade (66th) • 82.0 PFF Rushing Defense grade (37th) • 82.1 PFF Tackling grade (15th) • 77.8 PFF Coverage grade (65th) Ball State’s offense is led by sophomore running back Carson Steele, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season (12 touchdowns). Steele has been particularly dominant in conference play where he’s averaging 138 rushing yards per game, including going off for 192 rushing yards against Kent State two weeks ago and 198 rushing yards against Toledo last week. The Cardinals rank 48th in Line Yards and should have success on the ground against a subpar Ohio front seven that allowed 605 yards rushing to Northern Illinois and Kent State. Ball State quarterback John Paddock is throwing the ball over 40 times per game (just 5.8 yards per pass attempt, however) and the Bobcats have the 120th-ranked pass coverage unit, per PFF. Finally, Ohio possesses one of the worst special teams in the nation, checking in at 112th, per SP+. Grab the points with Ball State and invest with confidence.