JEFF'S 100% NCAA FOOTBALL ACC GAME OF YEAR

Duke’s football program excelled during David Cutcliffe’s fourteen-year tenure – six bowl bids, a ranked finish, and an ACC Coastal title – but the Blue Devils hit rock bottom in 2021 (113th in SP+) following back-to-back 5-8 seasons. Many believed first-year head coach Mike Elko was inheriting a program in decline, but the Blue Devils have exceeded expectations in 2022, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS. Duke is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this season where it’s averaging 35.2 points and 454 total yards per game at 6.8 yards per play and limiting foes to just 16.4 points and 329 total yards per game. Duke’s offense possesses a substantial advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game. Duke’s Offensive Line Metrics – 2022 • 4th in Offensive Line Yards • 12th in Tackles for Loss Allowed • 13th in Defensive Line Havoc Allowed • 11th in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed • 48th in Sacks Allowed The Blue Devils should have success on the ground against a subpar Wake Forest run defense ranked 96th in EPA/Rush Allowed, 105th in Power, and 88th in Explosive Rush Percentage Allowed. Indeed, Duke’s ground attack is 35th in the nation in Success Rate, 30th in Power, 39th in yards per rush, and 57th in Explosive Rush Percentage. In contrast, Wake Forest’s subpar rushing attack – 74th in Rush Success Rate, 81st in EPA/Rush, and 122nd in yards per rush play – has no chance against a stout Duke front seven ranked 6th in EPA/Rush Allowed, 30th in yards per rush allowed, 53rd in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 13th in Offensive Line Yards Allowed. Wake Forest’s 45-35 win over Syracuse snapped a three-game losing streak but the Demon Deacons finished with one of the lowest postgame win expectancies in Week 12 at 21.0%. The Blue Devils are +20 yards per game in ACC play, whereas the Demon Deacons are just +9 yards per game in conference action. Wake Forest lost its last two road affairs against Louisville and North Carolina State and now faces a surging Blue Devil squad that has won three of its last four games and exceeded market expectations in four of its previous five overall. My math model only favors Wake Forest by 1.24 points in this game so grab the inflated number with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.