JEFF'S ONE & ONLY NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR

Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs Oregon Ducks (9-2)

Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 3:30 pm

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The betting market continues to undervalue Oregon State even though the Beavers are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS this season (two of their three losses came by a combined six points), tied with Tulane for the best cover percentage in the FBS. two of the Beaver’s three losses came by a combined six points. My math model only favors Oregon by 2.2 points in this game and the Beavers are a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this season, the best home cover percentage in the Pac-12, and 5-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Oregon State has won and covered twelve consecutive games inside the friendly confines of Reser Stadium and the home team has won six of the past seven meetings in this series. Oregon arrives off an emotional 20-17 win over Utah last Saturday night and will struggle to contain a potent Oregon State ground attack ranked 18th in Rushing Success Rate, 30th in EPA/Rush, and 59th in Explosive Rush Percentage. The Ducks are 100th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 110th in Explosive Rush Percentage Allowed. Oregon State should also have success moving the ball through the air against an Oregon pass defense ranked 100th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 100th in yards per pass play allowed, 122nd in Passing Down Success Rate Allowed, and 115th in EPA/Pass Allowed. Oregon State’s Passing Offense - 2022 • 22nd in Passing Success Rate • 30th in yards per pass play • 10th in EPA/Pass • 49th in Explosive Pass Percentage Oregon State’s offensive line has done well protecting quarterback Ben Gulbranson, ranking 31st in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed, 29th in sacks allowed, and 46th in Pass Blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Oregon State improved to 8-3 – the program's most wins since 2012 – with last week’s dominating 31-7 win over Arizona State. A win over their most hated rival in Saturday’s Civil War preserves the possibility of a ten-win season for the Beavers (since 2003, Oregon State has only won nine games in a regular season once) and keeps Oregon out of the Pac-12 championship game. Grab the points with Oregon State and invest with confidence.

Jeff’s Pick Oregon State Beavers: +3 -110

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