USC Trojans (11-1) vs Utah Utes (9-3)
Friday, December 02, 2022 at 8:00 pm
USC made its first appearance in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night and a win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game would secure a trip to the College Football Playoff. However, my math model favors Utah by three points and the fact that the Trojans have revenge for their Week 7 loss in Salt Lake is meaningless as such teams are 48-51 SU and 50-49 ATS in conference title games since 2000 (23-23 ATS L/46). Since 2000, same-season avenging teams that allow 23.4 or more points per game are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS in conference title affairs when entering off a SU and ATS win, including 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS if they won by nine or more points. The Trojans fall into very negative 58-116 ATS and 36-79 ATS systems that invest against teams coming off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more yards per play versus opponents entering off a game in which they finished with a +125 or greater total yards margin. Since 2011, these situations have covered the spread by an average margin of 4.2 and 5.4 points per game, respectively. USC’s ultimate downfall will be a defense that is ranked 127th in Success Rate Allowed, 123rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 121st in Finishing Drives Allowed. Utah quarterback Cam Rising threw for over 400 yards at 9.4 yards per pass attempt in the first meeting and should have similar success Friday night against a USC pass defense ranked 116th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, 110th in Passing Down Success Rate Allowed and 107th in EPA/Pass Allowed. The Trojans’ front seven has had success generating pressure on opposing offenses this season, ranking 33rd in sacks and 23rd in Defensive Line Havoc, but will be neutralized by an elite Utah offensive line ranked 10th in sacks allowed, 4th in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed and 27th in Defensive Line Havoc Allowed. Utah’s potent ground attack – 6th in Success Rate, 29th in Explosive Rush Percentage and 9th in EPA/Rush – should control the clock against a terrible USC run defense ranked 125th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 128th in EPA/Rush Allowed. The ability to control the line of scrimmage is significant in that neutral field underdogs averaging 32 or more possession minutes per game are 73-34 ATS (68.2%) over the last ten seasons, covering the spread by an average of 3.9 points per game. This situation is 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2018 and 2-0 ATS this season. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is 23-10 SU and 26-6-1 ATS versus opponents off a double-digit win that allow more than 21.5 points per game, including 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS if the Utes are off a win by five or more points. With USC standing at 1-7 ATS in its last eight neutral site contests and 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings in this series off a double-digit win, grab the points with the Utes and invest with confidence.