JEFF'S NCAA HOOPS OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY

My math model only favors Virginia by 4.15 points in this game and the Cavaliers are one of the most overvalued teams in the betting market. Since 2018, Virginia is a money-burning 19-32 ATS as a favorite, 6-18 ATS in non-conference affairs and 10-21 ATS following a home game. In contrast, James Madison is 17-7 ATS over that same time period (12-4 ATS L/16), including 9-3 ATS as an underdog and 8-1 ATS versus .601 or greater opposition. Virginia is 3-6 ATS this season (0-3 ATS L/3), whereas the Dukes are 5-2 ATS. Second-year head Mark Byington exceeded expectations in his inaugural season in Harrisonburg, winning the Colonial Athletic Conference regular-season title and posting the team's first winning season since 2015-16. That success will continue in 2021-22 with four returning starters and several Division I transfers who have proven track records at the highest level. The Dukes are 4-0 at home this season where they are averaging 89.0 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field. The Dukes are led on offense by graduate transfer Takal Molson (Canisius), while fellow graduate transfer Alonzo Sule (Texas State) is tied for 11th in the country in field goal percentage (.692). Overall, James Madison is 73rd in the nation in field goal percentage (46.98). The Dukes have also been very strong at the defensive end of the floor. Specifically, the Dukes are ranked 94th in the country in scoring defense (64.2) and 75th in three-point field goal percentage defense (29.8). At home, James Madison is limiting opponents to just 52.7 points per game on 34.2% FG% and 22.2% 3-PT%. Grab the inflated number with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.