Kansas Jayhawks (32-6) vs Villanova Wildcats (30-7)
Saturday, April 02, 2022 at 6:09 pm
Villanova will once again be without its second-leading scorer, Justin Moore, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Elite 8 Round of the NCAA tournament. Moore is averaging 14.8 points per game across a team-high 34.6 minutes per contest. He was also the best ball-handler on the team as evidenced by Villanova’s turnover rate with Moore on the court (14.0%) compared to when he was on the bench (18.5%). Head coach Jay Wright will have to rely on Chris Arcidiacono for at least 25 minutes in this game, which is bad news for Villanova fans as he owns a 26.7% FG% this season and a 25.4% FG% in his collegiate career. Bryan Antoine, who is averaging just 1.4 points per game this season, will also see some playing time. The Jayhawks’ run to the Final Four has largely gone unnoticed despite their pure dominance in the tournament. Kansas posted a 47-19 lead at halftime in its first-round win over Texas Southern, recorded 113 points per 100 possessions against the best defensive team in the Big East Conference (Creighton) and outscored Miami Florida 47-15 in the second half to advance to the Final Four. The Jayhawks have won nine consecutive games since March 3 behind a defense that has limited opponents 41.6% from inside the arc (25th best in the nation, per Barrttorvik.com). The Jayhawks’ run through the NCAA tournament has been fueled by Arizona State transfer and first-team all-Pac-12 player Remy Martin, who is averaging 19.3 points per game on 64% shooting from the field and 40% from beyond the arc under the national spotlight. NCAA Tournament Trends Favoring Kansas • Kansas is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four national semifinals • Big East Conference underdogs are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last four national semifinals • Since 1992, No. 1 seeds are 12-4-1 ATS versus No. 2 seeds in the Final Four • Since 2001, No. 1 seeds have been a 55% ATS winning proposition versus lower-seeded teams in the Final Four • Villanova failed to cover the spread in four of its five games this season against top-10 teams Finally, Villanova falls into a very negative 31-73 ATS system of mine that invests against certain teams that are allowing 63 points or fewer on the season following a game in which they scored 55 points or less. Lay the points with the Jayhawks and invest with confidence.