JEFF'S 100% NCAA BASKETBALL VEGAS INSIDER

North Carolina has been one of the most dominant teams in college basketball since head coach Hubert Davis shortened his bench and transitioned to a six-player rotation. Per KenPom, North Carolina ranks 346th in bench minutes used this season, and Davis’ selective bench usage has remained intact during the NCAA tournament. According to BartTorvik, the Tar Heels are the No. 1 team in the country adjusted for opponents since the calendar turned to March. Davis has modernized the Tar Heels’ style of play by emphasizing more shots from beyond the arc and allowing his guards to play multiple positions. Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Leaky Black anchor the perimeter under Davis’ system, while Brady Manek floats from position-to-position. Love’s growth in terms of shot selection has played a key role in North Carolina’s March run. A career 37% shooter from inside the arc, Love is 17-for-28 on 2-point field goals over his last three games. Rebounding will be a significant factor in this game. Per ShotQuality, North Carolina ranks 82nd and 2nd in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively. The Tar Heels do an excellent job crashing the glass and preventing second-chance opportunities for opposing offenses. Armando Bacot grabbed 21 rebounds, eight of them offensive, in North Carolina’s 81-77 win over Duke. In his past two games, Bacot has hauled in 43 rebounds and is more than capable of containing 6-foot-10 David McCormick. As a team, North Carolina pulled down 39.5% of their misses on the offensive end, which was critical in the first half when the Tar Heels were cold from the perimeter. Kansas ranks 176th in the country in defensive rebound rate so the Tar Heels should have plenty of second-chance opportunities in the championship game. Kansas thrives on the offensive glass, ranking 33rd nationally in that category, but the Tar Heels have the second-best defensive rebounding rate in the country. My math model only favors Kansas by 1.4 points (with a relatively healthy Bacot) so the betting market has overreacted to the Jayhawks’ domination over Villanova. Kansas scored 1.398 points per possession - the highest mark against a Villanova defense in the last five seasons – while scoring zero fast-break points. The Jayhawks also finished 13-of-24 from beyond the arc. No wonder the market has fallen in love with Bill Self’s squad. However, North Carolina’s aggressiveness defensively on the wings should cause issues for both Ochai Agbaji (41% 3-PT%) and Christian Braun (39% 3-PT%). The Tar Heels have also improved defensively, ranking in the top 50 nationally in defensive efficiency over the last month. Trends Favoring North Carolina • North Carolina is 10-1-1 ATS in its last eleven games versus teams with a winning record, including 5-0 ATS versus .601 or greater opposition • North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall • The higher seed is on an 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS run in the NCAA championship game Grab the points with North Carolina and invest with confidence. Bacot’s Health: The X-rays on Bacot’s ankle were negative and coach Davis stated that Bacot was expected to practice on Sunday. "He's ready to play tomorrow night," Davis said. Bacot has been receiving treatment 24/7 since Saturday’s game ended. Bacot is the program's leading scorer (16.3 PPG) and rebounder (13.1 RPG), and his rebounding total ranks No. 3 in the country. He ranks No. 8 in defensive rebound percentage (30.2%) and No. 21 in offensive rebound percentage (14.9%), per KenPom.com.