San Francisco Giants (28-28) vs Baltimore Orioles (35-21)
Friday, June 02, 2023 at 10:15 pm
Since 2002, MLB favorites of -135 or greater with one day of rest are 218-90 SU (70.8%; +12.7% ROI) and 133-119 RL (+12.8% ROI) following a game as home favorites in which they gave up six or more runs, winning by an average margin of +1.77 runs per game. San Francisco starter Logan Webb is 25-6 SU (80.6%; +27.3% ROI) and 17-14 RL (+18.7% ROI) since September 12, 2019, as a home favorite, winning by an average of +2.13 runs per game. Webb is 17-5 SU (77.3%; +29.7% ROI) and 13-9 RL (+20% ROI) at home following a game in which they scored two or more runs against the starting pitcher, winning by an average of +1.82 runs per game. Webb has put together seven consecutive quality starts and garnered 18 strikeouts in his past 48 batters faced (37.5%). Webb throws a changeup 33.6% of the time, which is significant in that the Orioles rank 27th against changeups this season after finishing 26th last year. Finally, Baltimore starter Dean Kremer struggled in April (6.67 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 12.1% K-BB%) and posted a 4.56 xFIP and 12.4% K-BB% in May. Kremer now faces a top-five Giants’ offense against right-handed pitchers. Take San Francisco and invest with confidence.