Denver Nuggets (65-32) vs Miami Heat (57-45)
Thursday, June 01, 2023 at 8:30 pm
Since 2004, playoff teams with a point spread that is eight-plus points higher than the average line in their games during the regular season are just 212-630 SU (25.2%) and 361-474-7 ATS (43.2%), losing by an average of -8.32 points per game. Since 2003, playoff underdogs of two or more points are 105-280 SU (27.3%) and 161-219-5 ATS (42.4%) coming off a win that went under the total. Since 2002, NBA teams with four or more days of rest are 39-17 SU (69.6%) and 34-21-1 ATS (61.8%) versus teams with two or fewer days of rest in Game 1 of a playoff series. Since 2002, playoff teams coming off a 4-0 series sweep are 12-2 SU (85.7%) and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) versus teams coming off a seven-game series, winning by an average margin of +16.8 points per game and covering the spread by an average of +8.57 points per game. Since 2002, #1-seeds with three or more days of rest are 8-0 SU and ATS at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, winning by +15.4 points per game and covering by +9.9 points per game. Finally, Denver falls into a 100% perfect 7-0 SU and ATS postseason system of mine that dates to 2002 and invests on certain teams with a significant rest advantage. This situation has covered the spread by an average of +11.36 points per game in that span. Lay the points with Denver and invest with confidence.