JEFF'S #1 NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

Since 2010, winless NFL teams are 17-27-1 SU but 31-14 ATS (68.9%) in Week Three affairs as underdogs of 3.5 or more points. Since 2008, the league's best undefeated teams after two weeks - those having outscored teams by 25 or more points - are 22-17 SU but just 13-24-2 ATS (35.1%) in Week Three. Since the 1970 merger, NFL home underdogs of at least seven points within the season's first month are a profitable 91-59-4 ATS (60.7%), including 37-21 ATS over the past 25 seasons. Since 2010, 0-2 NFL teams are a money-making 50-33 ATS (60.2%) in their third game. The situation strongly favors Jacksonville as the Cardinals are making their second trip to the Southeast and NFL players have uniformly stated that Florida's humidity in September poses significant issues for visiting squads. Let's also note that Arizona has a huge divisional showdown against the Rams on deck and could easily overlook the hapless Jaguars. Finally, the fundamental matchup is favorable to the home underdog. Jacksonville is averaging 4.7 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow just 4.0 yards per rush play to a mediocre offense), whereas the Cardinals are yielding 5.4 yards per rush play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yards per rush play against a mediocre defense. Arizona's rush defense is one of the worst in the league and Jacksonville running back James Robinson, who has forced eight missed tackles on 22 carries this season, is primed to have a big game on the ground for the Jaguars. With 0-2 NFL home underdogs standing at 69.2% ATS over the previous five years, grab the points with Jacksonville and invest with confidence.