JEFF'S 100% (5-0 ATS) NFL PERFECT PLAY

Indianapolis quarterback Carson Wentz has been dealing with two sprained ankles following last week's 27-24 loss to the Rams but all reports indicate that the former No. 2 overall draft pick in 2016 is expected to start on Sunday.  Wentz is 45-of-69 for 498 yards and three touchdowns with an interception this season and is a three-point upgrade over backups Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley.  Hundley was taking the majority of first-team snaps earlier in the week and it's best that he remains on the sidelines in light of the fact that he is averaging just 4.6 yards per pass attempt on 368 career passes in the NFL.   Tennessee takes the field with a subpar defense that is allowing 34.0 points and 406 total yards per game at 7.1 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point this season.  Based on those poor defensive numbers, the Titans fall into a very negative 9-38 ATS system of mine that invests against certain NFL home favorites that are allowing 24 or more points per game on the season provided they are entering off a game in which 50 or more total points were scored.  Tennesse also applies to a 5-27 ATS situation that invests against certain NFL home favorites that are allowing 24 or more points per game following a contest in which they scored at least thirty points.  In contrast, Indianapolis is supported by a very strong 25-6 ATS system that invests on certain divisional underdogs that averaged 360 or more total offensive yards per game the prior season.  The Colts also apply to a solid 23-4 ATS situation that invests on certain road underdogs that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game the previous season if they are coming off a game in which they allowed 8.0 or more passing yards per attempt.   Let's also note that the Colts are a profitable 13-7 ATS versus Tennessee since 2011 and have covered four of their past five road affairs.  Let's also note that the Colts are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their past nine trips to Tennessee (5-0 ATS L/5).   Since 2010, NFL teams that start out 0-2 straight-up are 19-21 SU but 28-12 ATS (70%) versus 1-1 teams in Week Three of the regular season.  Over that same time period, winless NFL teams are 17-27-1 SU but 31-14 ATS (68.9%) in Week Three affairs as underdogs of 3.5 or more points.  Finally, Indianapolis is better than its 0-2 record suggests as the Colts have gotten inside the 5-yard line three times and scored a total of three points, which is not going to keep happening.  Grab the inflated number with Indianapolis and invest with confidence.