JEFF'S 100% NFL HIGH ROLLER SHOCKER

The Raiders' offensive line has been beset with injuries, losing starting left guard Richie Incognito (calf strain) for a minimum of five games and starting right guard Denzelle Good (ACL) for the season. John Simpson, a fourth-round draft pick in 2020 has taken over at left guard, Jermaine Eluemunor, who was signed on September 2, is at right guard and Brandon Parker, a third-round pick in 2018, has assumed the right tackle position. Starting running back Josh Jacobs has not practiced in two weeks after suffering an ankle injury in the Raiders' season-opener and is doubtful to play against Miami. Las Vegas has the third-worst rushing attack in the NFL and the Dolphins possess the defensive personnel to slow down the Raiders' potent aerial attack. The line in this game represents an overreaction to last week's results where Las Vegas traveled to the east and defeated the Steelers while Miami was shutout 35-0 at home against Buffalo. Prior to those disparate results, the look-ahead line in this game was a pick so getting 3.5 to 4 points is excellent value with an extremely well-coached Miami squad that is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss and 10-1 ATS in its past eleven games after allowing 30 or more points in its previous game. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS after clashing with Pittsburgh and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six meetings with Miami. Let's not forget that Miami flew here in Week 16 last season and won the game outright. Miami starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out with fractured ribs but veteran backup Jacoby Brissett is a profitable 11-7-1 ATS when his team enters off a loss, including a perfect 5-0 ATS after failing to cover the point spread by fifteen-plus points. Finally, Miami is 12-6 ATS since the start of last season, tied with the Bills for the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span. With Miami head coach Brian Flores standing at 9-4 ATS as a road underdog, grab the points with the Dolphins and invest with confidence.