Buffalo Bills (7-4) vs New England Patriots (8-4)
Monday, December 06, 2021 at 8:15 pm
New England is one of the hottest teams in the league as the Patriots have won six straight games (6-0 ATS as well; longest active cover streak in the NFL), including last Sunday's 36-13 victory over an injury-depleted Tennessee squad (missing Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones) that committed four turnovers. New England benefitted from a similar situation in its Week 11 win over Atlanta as the Falcons were missing three of their top four receivers. The Patriots' 27-24 win over the Chargers was also misleading in that they were outgained by 1.7 yards per play in the game. My math model favors Buffalo by 4.8 points in this game, which does not take into account the fact that the Bills played on Thanksgiving and possess a significant rest advantage. Buffalo defeated New Orleans 31-6 last Thursday, which is noteworthy in that the Bills are a profitable 10-3-1 ATS following a game in which they scored 30 or more points and 9-1-2 ATS off a game in which they allowed less than 250 total yards. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in its last eleven home affairs, 9-4-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as a home favorite and has covered the Vegas number in each of its last five games in the month of December or later. Let's also note that the Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their previous five games versus AFC East opposition and 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen had his best start against the Patriots in Week 16 of last season where he completed 75% of his passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. Allen has the fourth most big-time throws (Pro Football Focus' highest-graded throws) in the NFL since the start of last season and will be targeting the best player on the field in wide receiver Stefon Diggs (8th-highest grade among qualified receivers, per PFF). New England rookie quarterback Mac Jones will face one of the league's most dominating defenses as the Bills have PFF's highest coverage grade (89.7) and their third-best defensive grade overall (76.5). Take Buffalo on the money line and invest with confidence.