JEFF'S #1 NFL NON-CONF. TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Since November 9, 2017, teams coming off a loss in which they averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry and rushed for 43-plus yards more than their season-to-date average are 47-17 UNDER versus opponents that are not four or more games ahead of them in the win column. Since November 24, 2020, NFL favorites off a Monday night affair are 25-12 UNDER, while teams entering off a Monday night game as underdogs are 13-2 UNDER since November 29, 2020, including 10-1 UNDER since January 4, 2021. Pittsburgh is getting back several key players on the defensive side of the ball, including All-Pro outside linebacker T.J. Watts and safety Damontae Kazee. Dalton was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks last Monday night and matters will only get worse on Sunday against Watts and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, who has 21 pressures (16th) this season. Dalton’s problems are compounded by the fact that the Steelers are conceding just 4.8 yards per target to running backs this season (8th), thereby eliminating his favorite checkdown target in Alvin Kamara. Since October 1, 2015, the Steelers are 5-25 UNDER following a game in which they had fewer than 205 yards passing. The under falls into very good 44-14 and 28-6 NFL totals systems that invest on the under in games with home teams coming off a road loss by 21 or more points in the second half of the season if they have a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 8-1 UNDER since 2016 and 4-0 UNDER since 2018. Finally, the under is 79-55-2 (59%) this season, the best win percentage for the under through Week 9 since 1991. Take the under and invest with confidence.