Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) vs New Orleans Saints (3-6)
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1:00 pm
The Steelers are a profitable 22-10-2 ATS as underdogs over the last five seasons, while head coach Mike Tomlin is 14-8 SU and 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career (best record of any head coach over the L/20 years), including 7-2 SU and 7-0-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Tomlin is 39-16-1 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 14-2-1 ATS at home, covering nine straight and winning the last seven games outright. Pittsburgh enters off a much-needed bye week, whereas the Saints arrive off a Monday night affair against the Ravens. Tomlin is 14-6 straight-up following a bye week, including 5-1 at home, winning by an average of 9.0 points per game. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS on the road this season and 1-5 ATS in games priced between +3 and -3. New Orleans quarterback Andy Dalton has been a road favorite five times since 2018, going 1-4 ATS in those games. Dalton is 0-4-1 ATS in his past five road starts and is 2-6 ATS in eight career starts in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is getting back several key players on the defensive side of the ball, including All-Pro outside linebacker T.J. Watts and safety Damontae Kazee. Dalton was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks last Monday night and matters will only get worse on Sunday against Watts and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, who has 21 pressures (16th) this season. Dalton’s problems are compounded by the fact that the Steelers are conceding just 4.8 yards per target to running backs this season (8th), thereby eliminating his favorite checkdown target in Alvin Kamara. Since 2013, the Steelers are 8-0 SU and ATS following a non-opening season loss by 20 or more points, winning by an average margin of 11.0 points per game and covering the spread by an average of 12.12 points per game. Finally, my math model favors Pittsburgh in this game so grab the point(s) with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.