JEFF'S NFL CONF GAME OF THE WEEK (+$10,250)

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is averaging an NFL-best 0.40 EPA per dropback but now faces a very good Cleveland secondary that welcomes back Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward for the first time in over a month. Cleveland nickelback Greg Newsome is conceding just 0.54 yards per slot cover snap, 2nd-best in the league, and should have success containing Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa will also be under duress by edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett, who will take advantage of Miami right tackle Brandon Shell, who is allowing a 7% pressure rate. The Browns' defense ranks 30th in defensive expected points allowed (-13.08) in the fourth quarter but are coming off an impressive win over the Bengals wherein they completely shut down Joe Burrow. From an analytical standpoint, Cleveland is much better than its 3-5 record as I have the Browns rated as a top 10 team and their negative fourth quarter variance should improve moving forward. Cleveland should have success moving the ball against a Miami defense ranked 29th in defensive expected points added, 25th in scoring, 23rd in yards allowed per game and 27th in third-down defense. The Browns boast one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL behind Nick Chubb, who is second in the league in rushing (841 yards), averaging 5.64 yards per carry with a league-best 10 rushing touchdowns. Cleveland’s elite offensive line is anchored by Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio, who continues to dominate the line of scrimmage. Miami’s depleted secondary continues to be without starting cornerback Byron Jones, who hasn't participated in any football activity since last year's season finale. Offseason Achilles surgery landed him on the physically unable to perform list and his return is unknown. Miami falls into a very negative 3-26 ATS system that invests against November favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. This situation is 2-16 ATS since 2018 and 0-2 ATS this season. Miami also applies to a 9-37 ATS system that invests against home favorites of 3.5 and 10 points off a game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt versus opponents off back-to-back games with 7.0 or more passing yards per attempt. Cleveland is supported by a 33-9 ATS momentum system that invests on road teams coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 or more yards. This situation is 8-2 ATS over the last three seasons and has covered the spread by an average of 2.8 points per game since 2011. The Browns also fall into a very strong 24-4 ATS statistical matchup indicator that invests on road teams that are averaging 370 or more yards per game versus teams that are allowing 335 to 370 yards per game on the season. This situation is 13-2 ATS since 2016 and has covered the spread by an average of 7.7 points per game since 2011. Since December 1, 2014, regular season road underdogs (with normal rest) that are averaging fewer than 1.7 turnovers per game are 45-16 ATS following a game as home underdogs versus teams that are averaging at least 12.75 passing first downs per game. Since September 30, 2007, the Dolphins are 2-14 ATS at home following a game in which they had 300 or more yards passing. Since 2000, the Dolphins are 7-16-1 ATS following three or more consecutive wins if they are .501 or greater on the season. Finally, Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, whereas the Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, including 3-1 ATS this season. My math model only favors Miami by two points and the Browns enter off a bye so grab the live underdog and invest with confidence.