JEFF'S NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK (+$8,450)

Houston’s misleading 29-17 loss to the Eagles provides us with solid line value as my math model only favors the Giants by three points in this game. After scoring a touchdown on their opening drive against Philadelphia, the Texans had three drives that entered either the red zone (2) or the Eagles’ side of the field (1). Those three drives resulted in just three points when they would have ordinarily produced an average of 11.5 points. Despite their 1-6-1 record, only three of those losses came by more than a touchdown. This is just the sixth time in the Super Bowl era in which a .700 or greater team is a home favorite of less than a touchdown against a team with a winning percentage below .200 in November or later. The previous five favorites under these circumstances went 1-4 ATS. Since 2000, .750 or greater teams are just 46.8% ATS versus .250 or worse opposition, including 88-107-4 ATS (45.1%) in October or later. Since 2008, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points are 290-210 ATS (58.6%) if they won fewer than seven games the previous season. Since December 19, 2014, non-divisional road underdogs of five points or less are 24-2-3 ATS following a loss as home underdogs (or pk) in which they scored 20 points or less. Since November 22, 2020, teams that have gone under the total in three consecutive games are 5-14 SU and ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 0-5 ATS in their last five and 1-8 ATS since October 18, 2021. The Giants are one of the most-overrated 6-2 teams in the NFL this season: Pro Football Focus Metrics: New York Giants • 64.1 PFF overall grade (30th) • 66.5 PFF offensive grade (26th) • 54.6 PFF defensive grade (30th) • 61.3 PFF special teams grade (26th) New York quarterback Daniel Jones is just 18-27 straight-up in his career, including 10-13 straight-up at home. Since 2020, Jones is 0-3 straight-up versus teams averaging seventeen or fewer points per game. New York owns the 23rd-ranked passing offense (61.3 PFF passing grade), together with the 29th-ranked receiving unit (64.1 PFF receiving grade). New York is just 4-12 ATS as a favorite versus .150 or worse opposition, while Houston head coach Lovie Smith is 27-17 ATS as an underdog of more than five points (check the line), including 10-0 ATS off a loss of eight or more points. With NFL underdogs standing at 73-55-5 ATS this season, grab the points with the Texans and invest with confidence.