JEFF'S #1 NFL TOTAL OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY

The Chiefs and Eagles have the same record (16-3), scored the same number of points (546), have the same number of All-Pros (six) and neither trailed in a game this postseason. Kansas City had the best offense in the league by nearly every metric, while the Eagles had the No. 3 offense during the regular season by both DVOA and EPA per play. Philadelphia and Kansas City ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in situation-neutral pace this season. Both teams are led by quarterbacks who excel at passing from the pocket as Patrick Mahomes is ranked first in Total QBR (72.7) and second in TD-INT ratio (37-8), while Jalen Hurts is second in Total QBR (69.5) and first in TD-INT ratio (21-4). Mahomes has the most touchdown passes from inside the pocket, while Hurts has the highest completion percentage (66.5%). On the receiving end of the throws are Philadelphia wide receiver A.J. Brown and Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce. Brown finished with an Eagles single-season record 1,496 receiving yards this season, while Kelce led all tight ends in receptions per game, receiving yards per game and yards after the catch per game, including the playoffs. Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert ranked top five in all those categories as well, including second in yards after the catch per game. Mahomes posted his second career 5,000-yard season and led the NFL in touchdown passes with 41 and has the most playoff touchdown passes (32) and passing yards (3,902) by any quarterback before his 30th birthday in NFL history. Mahomes is protected by the No. 1 pass-blocking line by pass block win rate and is excellent at avoiding sacks, posting the lowest sack to pressure ratio (11%) in the league this season. Philadelphia played one of the easiest regular season schedules in the NFL. From a DVOA perspective, Philadelphia only faced two quarterbacks who finished in the top-10 in adjusted EPA per play in normal weather conditions this season - Jared Goff (6th) and Dak Prescott (7th). In those games, the Lions and Cowboys scored 35 and 40 points, respectively. Mahomes finished first in adjusted EPA per play in 2022-23. In 25 games Mahomes was an underdog or favorite of three points or fewer, the Chiefs averaged 31.8 points per game. The appointment of Carl Cheffers as the Super Bowl referee is significant in that his regular-season crew led the NFL in flags thrown. After taking into account penalties that were declined or offset, Cheffers’ crew threw the NFL's fourth-most flags in the regular season and was within three flags of five different officiating crews. Cheffers’ crew threw thirteen flags against Kansas City in Super Bowl LV. Take the over and invest with confidence.