Boise State Broncos (2-2) vs San Diego State Aztecs (2-2)
Friday, September 30, 2022 at 8:00 pm
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Friday.
San Diego State won 27-16 as a three-point home underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. I look for Boise State to answer back on Friday night. It's not easy to get behind the Broncos right now. They're coming off a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP last week and after that putrid offensive performance, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. There's no reason for Boise State to be as inconsistent offensively as it has been in the first month of the season. While San Diego State is always tough defensively, perhaps there's reason to believe Boise State can break through against the Aztecs here. San Diego State has actually struggled against any opponent with an offensive pulse this season, namely Arizona and Utah. In the opener against the Wildcats, the Aztecs allowed four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. It was a similar story against Utah as San Diego State yielded five touchdowns over a 23-minute stretch in the second and third quarters. The problem is, the Aztecs don't have the type of offense that can respond, at least not very quickly. As I did two weeks ago in my analysis of a play on Utah over San Diego State, I'm still questioning whether Virginia Tech transfer QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. In fact, it's becoming evident that he's not. Boise State has had its own issues offensively but the pieces are still in place to turn it around, and relieving Plough of his duties should provide a spark. The Broncos defense has been solid. Even in last week's setback, it didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half and then gave up only one offensive touchdown the rest of the way, that coming in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Boise State has actually given up just five offensive touchdowns over its last 14 quarters of action (after a rough season-opening first half against Oregon State). All is not lost as the Broncos get four of their next five games at home but it has to start with a victory here. Note that Boise State checks in a long-term 41-24 ATS when coming off two ATS losses in its last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. Take Boise State (10*).