Kansas State Wildcats (6-1) vs Wichita State Shockers (4-3)
Saturday, December 03, 2022 at 9:00 pm
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday.
Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*).