UNLV Runnin' Rebels (17-10) vs San Diego State Aztecs (22-7)

Tuesday, March 05, 2024 at 11:00 pm

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My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*).

Sean’s Pick Under: 136 -110

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