Cleveland Browns (1-1) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 8:15 pm
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.
The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*).