Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 1:00 pm
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.
While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*).