Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) vs Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
Saturday, October 09, 2021 at 8:00 pm
No. 1 Alabama vs Texas A&M8:00 PM EST, October 9, 202110-UNIT Best Bet on Texas A&M plus the points. Plus, not more than 1-UNIT bet on the money line OR wait till in-game, and if Alabama scores first then get the 1-UNIT money line bet executed. I like the latter choice to wait in-game and see.
Prior to the start of the season, the WestGate had this game lined as A&M installed as a 7.5-point home dog. So, the recent performances of these two teams, especially Alabama, has caused the market to explode in favor of Alabama. The result, though, has been that akin to stock trading, Alabama is now in severely overbought territory, while A&M is a bit over sold. My predictive models are expecting more of a single-digit type of game, but not higher than 14 points.
Betting on any team that is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing a team that has played in three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored have earned a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Plus, defending national champions that are 5-0 in the following season do get overpriced and a result are just 6-11 ATS when installed as a favorite and 2-7 ATS when installed as a a road favorite. A&M is also 23-9 ATS in home games after two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover and Fisher is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the previous game.
John’s Pick Texas A&M Aggies: +18.5 -110
AUTHOR: John Ryan
