Marlins/Braves

Premium Pick Win

Atlanta Braves (4-6) vs Miami Marlins (3-6)

Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 7:20 pm

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*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have a top five offense in the majors. They started the year slowly, but they have been rounding into form of late. Atlanta has a very low .241 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is 27th in the majors and there is positive regression coming for Atlanta in the batted balls area.

Miami ranks 19th in batting average on balls in play. The Marlins don't have a great offense by any means, but it is good enough. They looked great on Tuesday and I think they'll have some chances in this one too.

Atlanta's bullpen is way down from where it was a year ago. They lost their top two relievers from last year and that is going to hurt quite a bit. It will force them to win more high scoring games.

Neidert starts for the Marlins and his minor league numbers are very mediocre. He has control problems and I don't trust guys who enter the big leagues with control problems, especially against really good lineups.

Alfonso Marquez is the umpire here. The over is a whopping 36-13 in his last 49 games behind the plate. It isn't just a fluke either, his strikes called percentage is the lowest in the majors during that time.

Take the over. 

Kyle’s Pick Over: 8.5 -105

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