CFB-Fresno State vs UCLA

Premium Pick Win

UCLA Bruins (2-0) vs Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1)

Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 10:45 pm

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My projections and power rankings suggest this line should be no higher than 10 points and thus according to my estimates we have value attached to under rated Fresno State. It must be noted UCLA is getting way to much respect for their win vs LSU. Note: The Bruins have failed to cover 6 of the L/8 games vs non conference opposition as a home favorite. Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Pac 12. Fresno State is also 8-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 10 or more points.

CFB home team (UCLA) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 33-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 90-46 L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fresno State to cover

Alex’s Pick Fresno State Bulldogs: +11.5 -110

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