MLB Totals Smash

Minnesota Twins (25-23) vs San Francisco Giants (23-24)

Tuesday, May 23, 2023 at 7:40 pm

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Alex Cobb  and Sonny Gray are average at best pitchers but have performed very well out of the gate. Based on early season performance charts the total seems right, but after delving in deeper, and highlighting these two hurlers career averages a regression looks to be inevitable. 

MINNESOTA is 50-30 OVER  vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.7 runs per game scored over that 80 game sample size. Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Over is 6-2 in Giants last 8 interleague road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

MLB team (MINNESOTA) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 30-10 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

Alex’s Pick Over: 7.5 -112

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