Milwaukee Bucks (35-20) vs Memphis Grizzlies (28-26)
Saturday, April 17, 2021 at 9:00 pm
When these teams played back on March 4th they combined to put 223 points on the board in a Bucks 112 -111 win vs the Grizzlies. My projections in rematch estimate a combined score that is in the 233 range which gives us a more than 1 possession advantage. After playing last night the Grizzlies will not have the legs to run with the explosive Bucks, so instead I look for a concerted effort in transition that will slow this game down enough for a more muted score than many might expect.
It must be noted that the Bucks rank 7th in defensive rating and the Grizzlies 8th.: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)
Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.
MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average fo 217 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 209.1 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 23-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored in those 34 tilts.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 60-21 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER