NBA-Totals Smash

Premium Pick Loss

Milwaukee Bucks (55-21) vs Boston Celtics (52-24)

Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 7:30 pm

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Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season/4th in defensive efficiency and rank 18th in pace, while the Bucks rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams can core in bunches but in this type of affair between two of the top teams in the NBA a more conservative defensive minded approach must be expected especially with the play offs around the corner. Also the Bucks played last night in run gun fashion posting 149-136 win so instant offensive regression and tired legs vs a strong defensive side will effect their aggressiveness here and overall output giving us an edge on a under wager. 

Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games playing with no rest. 

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Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

MILWAUKEE in 57 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 18  games as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored.

Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

BOSTON  in 18 road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER   on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two goo teams are 31-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

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Alex’s Pick Under: 236.5 -110

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