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Premium Pick Loss

Minnesota Vikings (5-2) vs Indianapolis Colts (4-4)

Sunday, November 03, 2024 at 8:20 pm

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The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Alex’s Pick Over: 46.5 -108

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