Ron's Saturday College Football Play #5

Alabama is coming off a loss and the public has the idea that you do not want to bet against Nick Saban coming off a loss. Alas, this is only a mere myth, as Saban is actually 6-12 against the spread at Alabama coming off a loss. When taking a deep dive into the numbers for this particular game, I found that Mississippi State is a lot better than what the public thinks. Mike Leach has done a great job building a team with a dangerous passing game while also being very strong defensively. Mississippi State is 3-2 on the year, but its two losses were very avoidable. Coming off a bye week after just beating Texas A&M a few weeks ago, I think Mississippi State has it in them to keep this game within two touchdowns. Alabama has played in two true road games this season and in both games, the Tide failed to cover the spread. I like Mississippi State's offense to do enough against a surprisingly so-so Alabama secondary in Starksville to earn a cover at home here.