Ron's Rundown Wednesday MLB Best Bet

The SF Giants -1.5 is my MLB Best Bet for Wednesday, June 29th, 2022. Alex Wood owns an ERA above 5.00 and was not able to pitch more than 1.0 inning last time out yet he is still a -220 favorite in this spot. This is because Wood is pitching much better than his ERA suggests and I like this matchup for him at home against one of the weaker lineups in baseball. Yes, the Tigers have hit lefties better than righties this season, but Detroit is still in the bottom half of the league in team OPS and isolated power vs. LHP, and Wood's expected numbers are sharp. Despite his 5.05 ERA Wood owns a 3.62 FIP and a 3.44 xFIP in 2022. Wood limits walks and home runs and has a decent K rate. On the other side, Rony Garcia is a tough pitcher to read but one thing is certain, he is susceptible to getting hit hard. Garcia is in the bottom 1st percentile in barrel %, xERA, xwOBA, hard-hit %, and xSLG and he is in the bottom 2nd percentile in average exit velocity. Garcia faces a Giants lineup that is 6th in isolated power in the last 30 days vs. RHP and I think he gets hit hard early here. Garcia has a solid K/9 rating but with a whiff rate in the bottom 27th percentile and a chase rate in the bottom 7th, his strikeout numbers are unsustainable and we are already seeing him miss fewer bats as of late. I like the Giants to do a lot of damage offensively early and that should carry them to a run-line cover in the end. Add to the fact that we are getting plus money here and this is a play I have to make. Good luck everyone and thank you for your support!