Ron's Friday Night MLB Run Line Play

Premium Pick Loss

Los Angeles Dodgers (47-28) vs San Diego Padres (46-32)

Friday, July 01, 2022 at 10:10 pm

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I am going to sprinkle a little on the Padres ML but the premium play for me here is San Diego +1.5. On the rundown, I went over this game in detail and I think we have two pitchers that are headed in opposite directions. With Gonsolin's xFIP to ERA differential being over 2.00, I think is going to hit some hard regression very soon. Blake Snell on the other hand is someone who is struggling, yes, but has the strikeout stuff and the Cy Young pedigree to sharpen it up as the season continues. Snell has a low FIP and xFIP because of his ability to limit home runs and earn a lot of Ks. Snell has to limit walks going forward and here, he faces a Dodgers lineup that is ranked 20th in team OPS vs. LHP in the last 30 days and 18th in isolated power. The Padres have the better bullpen in my opinion so if this game is close late, I think San Diego has a solid chance at finding the W. Win or lose, I think this is a one-run game either way, so I am talking the Padres +1.5 as the underdog. 

Ron’s Pick San Diego Padres: +1.5 -140

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