Ron's Rundown Saturday MLB Best Bet
Chicago White Sox (56-56) vs Detroit Tigers (43-70)
Saturday, August 13, 2022 at 7:10 pm
I am not crazy about this Friday card, especially with over five games without lines currently, but this is my favorite selection of the bunch. The White Sox have underwhelmed in 2022 but they are far superior to this Tigers team and I think Matt Manning is in trouble on Saturday evening. Manning owns a strong 2.25 ERA, but a miserable 4.83 xFIP and 5.07 SIERA. The regression is coming for Manning, as he cannot have a 5.40/3.15 K/9 to BB/9 ratio and expect to have success in today’s game. The Sox have done a great job at drawing limiting strikeouts at the dish vs. RHP and the team OPS and isolated power numbers are both above average in the last 30 days. Manning’s control issues should hurt him here and I think the White Sox do better with RISP than the 1-8 they had on Friday night (which was still a run line cover as the Tigers were shut out). On the other side, Lucas Giolito is improving his game and is coming off of back-to-back strong starts. Kopech earned 11 Ks through 6.0 vs. DET on Friday and I expect Giolito to miss some bats here as well. Through 10.2 innings pitched vs. DET this season, Giolito has 14 Ks and owns a .162 opponents batting average despite an ERA above 4.00. The Tigers are dead last in the last month vs. RHP in team OPS and isolated power. The Tigers also own the second-highest K rate vs. RHP and the second-lowest walk rate. That OPS is even worse on the road and it’s not good enough, in my opinion, to compete in this game. At a good price, I will take the White Sox -1.5 at home.
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