Ron's Rundown Thursday MLB Best Bet

We are ready for Opening Day of the 2023 season. I am a numbers guy and look to tread lightly in the first week or so of the MLB campaign, just to get some data in. With that being said, the first few weeks of any new season are a great way to catch the books slipping and take advantage of mispriced lines. I think we have one here, as I am really high on this Marlins team in 2023 and think behind 2022 NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara, and an improved bullpen/lineup, the Fish can grab us a win at a great plus money price. Mad Max Scherzer is great and should pitch well in this one, but the Marlins' lineup is revamped with big pickups in AL Batting Crown champ, Luis Arraez, and the always-productive Jean Segura. Bringing back a healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr is huge for this team, and overall I think we see the Marlins make big strides in the right direction. Miami's team OPS vs. RHP was strong in the first half of the season, but the Fish struggled with runners in scoring position. Arraez was a monster in the WBC and Segura was solid in spring as well, so these pickups should make a difference right away. Neither of these teams' offenses overall had great springs, so we can expect a rather low-scoring game. Without Edwin Diaz, the Mets' bullpen is nowhere near as reliable as it was in 2022. The Marlins added nice relievers in A.J. Puk and Matt Barnes and overall, the bullpen on paper looks its best in years. This may be one of the best prices we get on Sandy Alcantara all year long, and at home, I will take the Marlins on the ML.