Ron's Rundown Wednesday MLB Best Bet

New York Yankees (23-13) vs Houston Astros (12-22)

Wednesday, May 08, 2024 at 7:05 pm

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I think this is a great spot to take a shot on the Astros as we get them at a great price after the blowout loss on Tuesday. Rodon is starting to regress big time and we saw him concede three bombs to the Orioles in his last start. The O's have crushed lefties all year but the Astros also have a strong lineup vs. lefties and I think Rodon pays the price. The Stros already saw Rodon once this season and they left many men on base and failed to make him pay for putting lots of runners on. This time around, I think we see a different ending. Arrighetti has slowly improved his game after a nightmare MLB debut. Arrihghetti is the Astros #1 pitching prospect for a reason and his last start vs. Cleveland was his best by far. Arrighetti's big problem is the walks, which is definitely a concern vs. a patient Yankees lineup, but if he can continue to get groundball outs and find the important strikeout when needed, he should be fine. Arrighetti owns an ugly ERA in the 8.00s but his xFIP is a much more reasonable 4.14 and his xERA is sub-4.00. The Yankees bullpen is great on paper with a strong ERA, but the SIERA for NYY's pen is actually worse than HOU's on the season! I think this Yankees' pen is due for major regression going forward, and if Rodon is not able to pitch deep into this game (which I expect) it could be even worse for NY when the bullpen enters the game. I think the wrong team is favored here, so give me the Astros ML. 

Ron’s Pick Houston Astros: +124

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