Ron's Rundown Thursday MLB Best Bet

Colorado Rockies (8-27) vs San Francisco Giants (16-21)

Thursday, May 09, 2024 at 3:10 pm

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I am rolling with the Rockies as they look to salvage the series and avoid a sweep on Thursday afternoon. Colorado has had the much better expected batting average in this series including an xBA above .310 yesterday in the loss. The fact of the matter is that San Francisco's lineup has been rather fortunate during this series as they are getting a lot of groundball base hits and weak contact hits as well. Quantrill is not my favorite option to back but his xERA is low because he limits sharp contact and does a pretty good job at limiting sharp contact, exactly what you want for a Coors Field pitcher. One of the big differences between him and a guy like Dakota Hudson, who has struggled mightily, is that Quantrill's BB% is nowhere near as steep, although at 3.18 BB/9 it is a bit of a concern. As long as Quantrill does not hand the game over with a pretty ribbon like Hudson did with his five walks in inopportune times, Quantrill should be able to put together a decent start. I like Keaton Winn but he along with guys like Jordan Hicks and Logan Webb are a lot more effective at Oracle Park where the park benefits the pitchers and groundball pitchers especially. At Coors, anything goes, and we saw Hicks struggle to keep the ball down despite the Rockies owning one of the league's highest groundball rates. Winn only has one Coors start under his belt and that was last year and it was only 4.0 innings of three-run ball with two walks and three hits. I still think Winn can put together a solid outing, similar to Quantrill, but when it comes to the bullpens while the Rockies' pen has been ugly, the Giants have not been much better with an ERA above 5.00. When you add to the fact that both Ryan Walker and Camillo Doval pitched on Tuesday/Wednesday and are unavailable for this game for SFG while Colorado has everyone if needed, it pushes the advantage even more so toward the home team. At this price, I have to take the Rockies ML on Thursday afternoon. 

Ron’s Pick Colorado Rockies: +136

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