Ron's Rundown Friday MLB Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles (24-12) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (17-20)

Friday, May 10, 2024 at 7:05 pm

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Pfaadt is much better than what we saw in his last start vs. SDP and while he gave up some sharp contact and a lot of hits, four of them were to Luis Arraez, the reigning NL batting champ who just finds a way to bloop a single or double down the line even on pitches well outside the strike zone. Pfaadt has a great chase % this season and that bodes well vs. an Orioles team that is 5th-highest in chase rate offensively, so I expect a lot of weak contact. Pfaadt's xERA and xFIP are more than a run lower than his current ERA, so I expect better luck for him going forward. Cole Irvin is due for major regression as he has pitched well recently but now has to face one of the toughest lineups in baseball vs. LHP in the Dbacks who have been near the top of the league in OPS vs. southpaws all season. Irvin's last three starts were vs. KC, OAK, and CIN so the strength of schedule has not been anywhere near as tough as the Diamondbacks are vs. lefties.  The Dbacks' bullpen is not great but getting Paul Sewald back is huge and I think Arizona will be much sharper there, especially in a spot like this where the team got the day off on Thursday so every reliever is available if necessary. At this stellar plus-money price, I will roll with Arizona ML.

Ron’s Pick Arizona Diamondbacks: +117

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