Ron's NFL Sunday Moneyline Winner

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) vs New England Patriots (0-1)

Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 1:00 pm

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The Patriots are favored on the road despite losing by 13 to the Dolphins and failing to cover the spread, while the Steelers not only covered their spread as a dog but beat the defending AFC champs outright. T.J Watt is out, but his absence alone does not drive this line to where it is currently at. Oddsmakers know that New England is the better team and I like the Patriots to grab a victory on the road here. New England was sloppy offensively last week and ended the game -3 in the turnover battle vs. Miami. Against a Steelers defense that has struggled in stopping the run for the past couple of seasons, I think New England's offense is more two-dimensional and puts some quality drives together early. I expect a big game from Rhamondre Stevenson and I like his rushing yards prop over. Despite a pick 6, multiple sacks, and a +5 in the turnover battle last week, The Steelers beat the Bengals by 3 in an OT game that went down to the wire. That frightens me for Pittsburgh, as those kinds of takeaway numbers are not sustainable, especially without Watt. The Steelers offense did virtually nothing against Cincinnati and the run game was disappointing. With Najee Harris a little banged up (still expected to start) I don't love the Steelers' chances offensively against a solid New England defense. NE stopped the run very well vs. Miami and although Tua and the Dolphins found a few explosive plays in the passing game, I don't think Trubisky is that guy, nor does he have the two fastest wide receivers in the league on his side. I think Belichik silences the doubters at Heinz Field here, so give me the Pats on the ML. 

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Ron’s Pick New England Patriots: -140

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