This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our NCAA Championship Ultimate Dominator. We have less than a one possession line in the championship game so there is no edge either way as there have been 26 championship games over the last 60 years with a spread of two points or less and the teams have gone 13-13 straight up and against the number. The Houston defense took over against Duke, holding the Blue Devils to 8 points over the final 8 minutes and that defense will be the difference again. They are No. 1 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in mucked up games, they do not lose as they are 33-0 when holding teams to fewer than 70 ppg and they have done this the last three games despite forcing only 23 total turnovers after coming in No. 12 in Defensive Turnover Rate. Now Houston catches a Florida team that has not taken care of the ball, turning it over 15 times per game over the last three games. It has been the Walter Clayton, Jr. show for the Gators as he has scored 34 and 30 points the last two games and his clutch shooting has lifted Florida to pull away late. Now comes the test against that No. 1 ranked defense after going against defenses over the last two games ranked No. 41 and No. 24 in Quad 1 games since February 1st. And it should be noted he was held to just 13 points against Maryland the previous game and the Terrapins No. 2 ranked defense. And do not think coaching does not matter as coaches that have a two-plus Final Four edge are 48-26 and Kelvin Sampson is still underrated. Houston comes in as the slight dog and is an underdog for the just eighth time since 2020 and it is 6-1. 10* (702) Houston Cougars
Matt’s Pick Houston: +1.5 -115
AUTHOR: Matt Fargo
