Minnesota Twins (44-36) vs Baltimore Orioles (35-43)
Saturday, July 02, 2022 at 2:10 pm
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. We lost in the bottom of the ninth with Baltimore last night and we will be back them again today for a lot of the same reasons as it is catching another good number here. The Orioles 21-19 over their last 40 games and while that may look average, being an underdog in 34 of those games has brought home a tremendous ROI. They are nine games under .500 on the road but have shown a profit thanks to underdogs numbers like this. Jordan Lyles has been up and down with a 4.94 ERA in 15 starts after a decent effort against the White Sox and faces an inconsistent Minnesota offense that managed only four hits last night prior to the walk-off home run. Baltimore is 14-9 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .540 and .620 this season and 12-4 in its last 16 following a loss. Minnesota snapped a two-game losing streak with the Friday win and are 6-7 over their last 13 games and it been plodding along for a while now as since a six-game winning streak was ended on May 24, the Twins are 16-20 and have seen a big lead evaporate in the American League Central. They have been favored in 21 of those 36 games so they have been completely opposite of Baltimore in extended profit. The overall offensive numbers are good but inconsistent as they have scored three runs or less in 10 of their last 19 games. The resurgent Sonny Gray gets the ball and he is coming off another solid effort to lower his ERA to 2.17 but like Joe Ryan last night, he is overpriced. The Twins are 2-9 in their last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 137-128 (51.7 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +65.9. 9* (965) Baltimore Orioles