Fargo's MLB Divisional Game of the Month 56%

Texas Rangers (23-23) vs LA Angels (17-28)

Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 7:15 pm

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This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. The Angels have gotten off to a rough start at 17-28 but have won two straight and sit just one game under .500 on the road compared to a dismal 6-16 record at home. They are 5-5 over their last 10 games while averaging 5.7 rpg. Texas is now back to .500 on the season after a 1-6 stretch where the offense has completely shut down, averaging only 2.8 rpg over that stretch. The Rangers are a game under .500 at home so there has been no home edge in Arlington. Patrick Sandoval has pitched better than his top level numbers of a 5.20 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through nine starts. Underlying metrics of 3.49 xERA, 3.46 xFIP and 2.76 FIP all suggest that he will have positive regression as his command, strikeout rate and barrel rate have all improved. Jose Urena has looked solid in his first two starts but this is not going to continue as we see the opposite regression from him. He has a xERA of 4.94 or worse in his last five seasons so his early numbers are an anomaly. He has a career 15.5 percent strikeout rate and has only five strikeouts this season and will be challenged by the improved Angels offense despite the absence of Mike Trout. 10* (973) Los Angeles Angels

Matt’s Pick Los Angeles Angels: +115

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