Fargo's NBA Signature Enforcer (57-39 Run)

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The home team is just 2-3 in this series so the home floor has not been a huge advantage which is more surprising for Oklahoma City which came into the series 36-8 at home but has dropped two of three at home. Dallas came into the series 27-17 at home so its home court has not been as dominant anyway and the 1-1 split should not be a huge surprise and the Thunder have no issues coming away with another road win. Oklahoma City is coming off its worst defensive performance in the playoffs and it was not even close. While giving up just 104 points, the Thunder allowed Dallas to shoot 52.6 percent and that was the highest percentage allowed in their last 13 games. The Thunder offense has sputtered the last two games, shooting around 40 percent combined and the long range shooting has really tailed off. They are yet to make more than 10 three-pointers in this series after knocking down 16 of them in Game One and we feel that regression comes back to the norm in Game Six. The total has come down in every game and it is as low as 208.5 in some places and Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games where the total is 200 to 209.5. Here, we play on road teams revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 132-81 ATS (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (531) Oklahoma City Thunder

AUTHOR: Matt Fargo

Matt is one of the most respected and consistent handicappers since 2000 and his thorough analysis has earned him a devoted following. He is considered a situational handicapper above anything and a contrarian at heart, a great edge to beat the books