ON FIRE! BIG AL's BAYLOR/HOUSTON WINNER (8-1 RUN)

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears.  The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg.  Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics).  It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game.  But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat!  The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th).  And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg.  That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points!  Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.