Tennessee Titans (3-2) vs Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 8:15 pm
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills. Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday. The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog. But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee. Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win. Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes. Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points. Take the Titans as a home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.